A new decade-long assessment of electricity supply highlights tightening margins, rising demand pressures and the growing importance of firm capacity across the all-island market.

The latest All-Island Resource Adequacy Assessment (AIRAA) 2026-2035, published jointly by SONI and EirGrid, provides the most comprehensive forward look at electricity supply and demand across the island over the next decade. Replacing the former Generation Capacity Statement, AIRAA evaluates whether forecast generation, interconnection and demand-side resources will be sufficient to maintain security of supply under a range of scenarios.

The headline message is clear, while near-term adequacy can be managed, emerging risks increase later in the decade, particularly under more conservative assumptions. Rising electricity demand, driven by electrification of heat and transport, economic growth and potential large energy users tightens the supply-demand balance. At the same time, ageing thermal plant closures and increasing reliance on variable renewable generation heighten exposure to periods of system stress.

A notable development in this edition is the introduction of an Economic Viability Assessment, aligned with EU Regulation 2019/943. This tests whether market revenues are sufficient to sustain required generation capacity. Its inclusion reflects a shift from purely technical adequacy modelling towards assessing whether investment signals within the Single Electricity Market are robust enough to deliver security of supply.

For Northern Ireland, the implications are strategic. Adequacy assessments directly inform capacity market auctions, investment decisions and policy debates around dispatchable generation, storage and interconnection. They also shape the regulatory environment for large energy users and potential inward investors who prioritise reliability and price stability.

In practical terms, AIRAA reinforces three themes: the urgency of timely infrastructure delivery, the need for clear investment signals in firm capacity and the importance of cross-border coordination within the all-island system. For policymakers and business stakeholders alike, it underlines that security of supply is no longer a background technical issue but a central economic competitiveness consideration for the decade ahead.

To read the full report click here.