Northern Ireland finished 2025 with a mixed set of economic signals. Services output fell by 1.5% in the fourth quarter and retail output fell by 2.6%, suggesting some softness in demand and business activity at year end. Yet production output rose by 1.3% over the quarter and 2.7% over the year, providing a positive counterweight.

The broader comparison with the UK is more favourable than the quarterly headlines alone suggest. Over the year, NI’s production grew by 2.7%, compared with 1.0% for the UK. On a rolling four quarter basis, NI production grew by 2.6%, against 0.3% for the UK. Retail also compares well: NI retail output rose 2.2% over the year, ahead of 1.7% in Great Britain and increased 6.0% over the latest four quarters, compared with 1.3% in GB.

On services, NI underperformed the UK on the latest annual measure, with services output up 0.6% against 1.0% for the UK. However, on a rolling four quarter basis, NI services grew by 2.2% ahead of the UK’s 1.5%. That suggests the region’s medium term performance remains relatively solid, even if the latest quarter was weaker.

Compared with pre pandemic levels in Q4 2019 Northern Ireland’s services output is 10.3% higher, production is 7.6% higher and retail is 1.3% higher. In both production and retail, NI now sits above its pre-pandemic baseline while equivalent UK measures remain below theirs.

Taken together, the figures point to an economy that is not without pressure particularly within services and consumer facing activity, but which continues to show resilience relative to the UK in several important areas. That wider message is reinforced by Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index, which rose by 1.6% over the year to Q4 2025, compared with 1.0% UK GDP growth over the same period. For North West firms, the implication is straightforward: conditions remain uneven, but Northern Ireland is still holding up better than the national benchmark in a number of measures that matter most.

Takeaway:

Northern Ireland ended 2025 with a softer final quarter, but it is still outperforming the UK on several of the clearest annual and medium term indicators especially in production and retail.